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Increasing worries are present over the possibility of warfare among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has triggered a fierce verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a military clash broke out in which numerous people were killed.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the wish to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to brief comments on X from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has displayed training completions of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of staff section of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the ruler cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, finishing with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The two signed a statement that the war was finished – a move that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

But ties have later worsened once more.